A slower-than-expected recovery in Chinese tourism to Australia, following the disruptions caused by the pandemic, is predicted to gain momentum in the coming years and eventually exceed pre-pandemic levels, according to a report from Tourism Research Australia (TRA).
The bi-annual Tourism Forecasts for Australia report published by TRA acknowledges that it initially underestimated the surge in arrivals from China in early 2023, which led some to believe the market would rebound more quickly than expected. Before the pandemic, China and New Zealand were competing as Australia’s leading inbound markets, with 1.44 million Chinese visitors arriving in 2019 – a figure that had steadily increased over the previous decade.
However, in 2023, the number of Chinese visitors remained well below pre-pandemic levels, with only 535,800 arrivals, or 37% of the 2019 total. By mid-2024, though, this number had more than doubled, reaching 60% of the pre-pandemic volume by the year-ending 30 June.
In its latest five-year forecast, TRA has revised its outlook for China’s recovery, acknowledging that the growth rate could either accelerate or decelerate, depending on various factors. The forecast is based on a weaker Chinese economy, driven by subdued domestic demand and a downturn in the property sector, which has limited household incomes. Despite this, China is still expected to contribute the highest number of additional arrivals to Australia over the next five years, outpacing all other source markets, thanks to its enormous population.
TRA predicts that by 2029, there will be 811,000 more arrivals from China compared to 2024, accounting for around a quarter of the total increase in visitors across all markets. While some countries’ source markets have already surpassed pre-pandemic arrival levels, the report suggests that China will fully recover and exceed its pre-pandemic performance by 2027, regaining its position as Australia’s leading source market, as it was in 2018 and 2019. In fact, China has already reclaimed the top spot as Australia’s most lucrative market by spend.
Additionally, southeast Asian markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam are showing strong growth, with arrivals from these three countries expected to increase by over 40% by 2029, contributing an extra 262,000 visitors.
