Airlines are packing more passengers onto fewer flights between Sydney and Melbourne, as capacity continues to fall short of steadily rising demand.
According to Australian government aviation data from November 2024, load factors on flights between the two cities surged to over 92%, despite the number of available seats remaining stagnant – still 7% below pre-pandemic levels.
This marks a significant jump from the previous record of 85.8%, set around the time Rex entered administration, leaving Qantas and Virgin Australia as the sole operators on the route.
The reduction in capacity is shrinking passenger choice and driving up airfares.
Already the world’s fifth busiest domestic route, Sydney to Melbourne sees demand from the corporate sector pushing load factors well above the global average.
FCM Travel’s Q4 Quarterly Travel Trends Report found that the lowest fares are typically snapped up by those booking well in advance, with major events in both cities further contributing to rising prices.
The report also revealed that flights during peak business hours are running at full capacity, with every seat taken.
Renos Rologas, General Manager ANZ at FCM Travel, said that seat availability between the two cities is often extremely limited.
“The economy cabin on the route is so highly sought-after that we are seeing airfares sit steady between Sydney and Melbourne [and] without a big capacity or competition shake-up, this is unlikely to improve any time soon,” Rologas said.
“It would appear that airlines are pumping up load factors on the Sydney to Melbourne route, but it comes as a result of limited competition, a lack of access to the right aircraft… and good airline management,” he added.
