Not far past a day after I’d returned to Sydney from IPW in Chicago, the US carried out Midnight Hammer – a covert operation that included 125 US military aircraft and targeted three nuclear facilities, Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, in Iran.
According to President Donald Trump, the operation was a “magnificent success”. So covert was it that it seemed to catch many a US ally off guard, including Australia.
Matters of global warfare are strangely intertwined in the body of what travelBulletin and Travel Daily covers – unsurprisingly, they often create a significant impact on our industry.
In this case, the timing, just after the US’s largest inbound travel conference and expo had finished, didn’t go without notice.
And so it was that IPW 2025 will likely be remembered in the trade more for what it had to compete against as opposed to what it had to offer, bookmarked by two very uncomfortable situations.
Cast your mind back two weeks to when I previewed IPW in this very column – I had just touched down at O’Hare Interntional when it hit your inbox.
It was in the midst of continued protests in 2024 IPW host city, Los Angeles, which had spread to other cities. The result at that stage was the ‘No Kings’ rally that included hundreds of thousands of people across multiple major cities including Chicago, thankfully relatively peacefully.
It was also in the context of a large amount of travel brands with significant business in the US or related to the US downgrading profit forecasts.
Flight Centre Travel Group, Helloworld and more, downgraded profits in light of economic uncertainty stemming from the recent shift in administration in the US Government. Major airlines like Air Canada lamented their declining numbers on US routes.
International travel to the States dropped 14% in March compared to the previous corresponding period, according to the US Travel Association, whose CEO, Geoff Freeman, is not shy of sharing a home truth. A little more on that later.
If that environment was one IPW bookend, the other was what would happen just days after the close with Operation Midnight Hammer, shutting significant airspace on the other side of the world and putting the spotlight well and truly back on the US – not that it had ever really left.
It begs the question – was IPW just a colossal waste of money, fighting an impossible, surging, tide? Or was it somewhat fortuitous timing, allowing the US to put the spotlight on some positives in what was an otherwise challenging environment?
Positives? Before we go on, let’s cover those briefly, because there are some, without doubt.
According to Brand USA President and CEO, Fred Dixon, “Year-to-date international arrivals are tracking overall with last year’s performance, and air connectivity to the US is stronger than ever, with more than 853,000 non-stop flights from all corners of the globe.
“We are especially excited about 44 new non-stop routes launching this year from 26 countries – adding more than 1.6 million seats to our inbound air capacity.”
Brand USA also launched its new ‘America the Beautiful’ brand platform and associated campaigns, hammering home the message that the US is open and welcoming.
This was a US travel industry that was up for the challenge and keen to push its message as far as it would go.
What the execs said…
There were two obvious ways to assess the situation while I was in Chicago. Firstly, from what the senior executives charged with speaking on stage to the media were saying – if it’s a serious enough issue, they will address it. Secondly, from what the people on the expo floor would tell me, largely off-the-record, as they tried to promote their products to the thousands of industry execs marching through.
In my write-up of IPW last year, I said that Freeman had become somewhat of a trade hero of mine, with his upfront commentary and clear assessment of the current environment.
As a reminder, here is what he said. In essence, ‘America, we have a problem’. The problem has now morphed into something quite different, and Freeman was again upfront.
“It is no secret in some parts of the world there is a growing perception that the United States might be difficult or even unwelcoming,” he asserted during lunch. “That perception is costing us, we need to flip the script, we need to be loud and clear that America is open for business, we want your business, and we are ready to welcome the world.”
He noted that with the FIFA World Cup, Summer Olympics 2028 in LA, and the 250th birthday of the USA all in the near future, it was an opportunity the country could “not afford to fumble”. You got the feeling he thought a fumble was a distinct possibility and somewhat out of the control of the people at IPW.
During the conference, the FIFA Club World Cup, hosted entirely in the US, kicked off. It would not have gone unnoticed that there were more than one or two empty seats at many of the matches that featured big name European and South American clubs. ESPN gave its opinion here, and it’s worth a read.
While Freeman addressed the general environment, Dixon addressed a specific situation that could have significant ramifications.
“I’m sure you have all heard of various conversations happening about our funding,” he said.
A year into the job as Brand USA President and CEO, many a trade media outlet, including this one, has covered the possibility of the US government cutting 80% of Brand USA’s budget at a time where it arguably needs it most.
To counter it, Dixon hammered home just how important tourism was to the US.
“In fiscal year 2024, a year with record budget, brand new sales and marketing efforts generated 1.6 million incremental visitors,” he said.
“Incremental is the important part – there was nearly $6 billion in direct spend from those incremental visitors, and nearly $13 billion in total economic impact created by those travellers.
“That supported nearly 80,000 jobs and, put into historical context over the past 12 years including the COVID period, brand new city marketing efforts…had a cumulative impact of $76 billion.”
He went on to say that “results like these illustrated our positive impact and showed just how important Brand USA is for the industry and the overall US economy”.
Dixon and his team were “engaged in an unprecedented level of dialogue with every level of government, including the White House” to ensure they had what they needed to do what must be one of the most important jobs for the US right now.
Perhaps the budget pressures had already kicked in, though. The usual celebrity-fest that is IPW was strangely lacking this time around. Last year, Diana Ross and Keanu Reeves’ band Dogstar serenaded the delegates at the closing ceremony. The big names were not present this year, however.
The top brass in US tourism were refreshingly open about the challenges at this time – they are clearly taking it very seriously.
But what about on the ground?
The people have their say…
In a direct conversation I had with Global Communications Manager, Ana-Gabriella Garcia, of the Los Angeles Tourism and Conventions Board, it was all too obvious that the challenges were having a direct effect on those on the ground in the industry.
“It’s definitely been a tough time for most of the States right now, and I think LA got a good amount of it in the beginning, but thankfully a lot of it’s been peaceful,” she told me.
Garcia said that statistically, she couldn’t say whether actual visitation numbers had dropped, but in terms of sentiment, it was obvious that there was a dip.
Garcia was taking a stoic approach to the situation, as LA wouldn’t pressure people to come, but if they did, the city would welcome them with open arms and provide a great experience.
Others on the ground were happy to talk on background. One corporate travel advisor said that there had certainly been an increasing number of cancellations when it came to trips to the US.
“It’s quite evident and the reasoning is the uncertain situation on the ground – partly its economics, but more so, its political,” they said.
Another mentioned that while domestic travel within the US was still a solid opportunity, international was far more challenging and there would likely be deficit.
Despite the energy and vigour advisors were putting in, they were realistic in terms of the “uphill job” it would be for those agents to convince their clients to make the trip to the US, particularly from Australia.
I enjoyed my time in the US, I had no issues getting through customs and immigration. The flight across on Delta was extremely comfortable, and Chicago in summer with its 4:30am sunrises is fantastic.
But despite my experience, it’s hard to believe that the US is not in for a rocky ride when it comes to attracting tourists to its smorgasbord of attractions.
Will it “fumble” the opportunity? At IPW, Dixon mentioned the increased investment in AI – a “new AI-powered content engine will allow users to receive curated trip ideas and itineraries tailored to the content they’re viewing, which they can customise further based on their interests”.
Without being flippant, I couldn’t help myself but to ask AI whether it thought the US would fumble the opportunity or not.
“The US could absolutely fumble this opportunity if economic pressures intensify or if the political climate turns inhospitable to global audiences. That said, the private sector, major host cities like LA, New York, and Atlanta, and existing infrastructure give the US a solid foundation to succeed if there’s competent coordination and investment.”
The rest of the week
While Travel Daily covered the largest amount of news coming out of IPW for an Australian travel trade outlet, I’ll give you a break from it after the above and focus on some important local items.
The Victorian Government has teamed up with several travel and tourism operators to attract more visitors to the state as part of a new visitor partnership model.
Australian airlines were caught up in the aforementioned airspace issues as a result of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Iraq, with QF33 in particular doing a 15-hour trip from Perth back to Perth that travel industry exec Charlie Trevena was caught up on.
And ATIA confirmed its new board with two fresh faces.
Meanwhile on the cruise front, Deputy Editor Matt Lennon was on Paspaley Pearl in Dili this week and uncovered a number of news stories including this on its interesting strategy.
We exclusively reported that CLIA President & Chief Executive Officer Bud Darr will present a keynote address at this year’s expanded Cruise360 conference in Brisbane.
And a “world’s first” AI cruise tool was launched.
That’s a wrap for this week.
Enjoy your weekend!
