Issues & Trends – April 2011
Political unrest, natural disasters are slowing
global airline growth, IATA figures show
ANNOUNCING a February passenger traffic increase of six per cent, IATA warned that demand growth for the month was “significantly down from the revised 8.4 per cent expansion recorded in January.
“The political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa during February is estimated to have cut international traffic by about one per cent,” said IATA director general and chief executive Giovanni Bisignani.
“It is responsible almost entirely for the slippage in passenger demand growth.
“As the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia spreads across the Middle East and North Africa, demand growth across the region is taking a step back.
“The tragic earthquake and its aftermath in Japan will most certainly see a further dampening of demand from March.
“The industry fundamentals are good but extraordinary circumstances have made the first quarter of 2011 very difficult.”
IATA figures for February also show a decline in passenger load factors to 73 per cent. Seasonally adjusted they are down 2.2 percentage points on peak levels.
Nevertheless February air travel volumes were 16 per cent higher compared to the low point reached in early 2009 and five per cent above the pre-recession peak of early 2008.
Asia-Pacific airlines reported a major slowdown to three per cent growth, half of the 6.3 per cent recorded for January. A capacity increase of 6.6 per cent pushed the load factor down to 75.4 per cent
However these figures partly reflect that Chinese New Year fell at the beginning of February, pushing some holiday traffic into late January.
Middle East airlines saw demand growth fall from 12 per cent in January to 8.4 per cent in February. A capacity increase of 11 per cent resulted in a load factor of 72.2 per cent.
“Political unrest in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria is expected to have an impact on the region’s markets in March,” the IATA statement said. “These three countries represent about six per cent of Middle Eastern traffic and 0.3 per cent of global capacity.”
Africa saw traffic fall by 1.3 per cent compared to February 2010 and load factors fell to 60.4 per cent.
Egypt and Tunisia account for 18 per cent of the African market and 0.6 per cent of worldwide capacity.
Europe’s carriers recorded 7.4 per cent growth compared to February 2010 against a 9.8 per cent increase in capacity.
North American airlines reported 6.7 per cent year-on-year growth for February and a capacity expansion of 11.9 per cent pushing the load factor down to 71.7 per cent, significantly below the 82.2 per cent recorded for the full year in 2010.
Latin American airlines were least exposed to volatility in February. Passenger demand increased by 11.8 per cent, virtually matching a capacity expansion of 12.9 per cent allowing the region’s carriers to maintain the strongest load factor globally at 76.4 per cent.
